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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
PAXOCEAN, HONG LAM MARINE AND BUREAU VERITAS SIGN MOU TO DEVELOP AMMONIA BUNKER VESSEL DESIGN - BUREAU VERITAS
PaxOcean Engineering Pte. Ltd. has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Singapore-based bunker vessel operator Hong Lam Marine and class ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
GOODFUELSS ASIA-PACIFIC BRANCH KICKSTARTS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUEL DELIVERIES WITH NYK AS FIRST CLIENT - GOOD FUELS
GoodFuels, the leading biofuels pioneer for the global transport industry, has today announced that it has successfully supplied sustainable marine ...
Tuesday, 16 August 22
EU BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS COMES INTO FORCE - DEUTSCHE WELLE
The European Union banned Russian coal imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine as part of sanctions in April. Since then, it’s been sc ...
Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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