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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
PAXOCEAN, HONG LAM MARINE AND BUREAU VERITAS SIGN MOU TO DEVELOP AMMONIA BUNKER VESSEL DESIGN - BUREAU VERITAS
PaxOcean Engineering Pte. Ltd. has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Singapore-based bunker vessel operator Hong Lam Marine and class ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
GOODFUELSS ASIA-PACIFIC BRANCH KICKSTARTS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUEL DELIVERIES WITH NYK AS FIRST CLIENT - GOOD FUELS
GoodFuels, the leading biofuels pioneer for the global transport industry, has today announced that it has successfully supplied sustainable marine ...
Tuesday, 16 August 22
EU BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS COMES INTO FORCE - DEUTSCHE WELLE
The European Union banned Russian coal imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine as part of sanctions in April. Since then, it’s been sc ...
Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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