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Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such an agreement is anticipated to soften grain prices as an immediate response to the increase in global supplies. But it is also anticipated to offer relief to grain mills, in an effort to ensure limited rotting of the current harvest and rapidly free up silos for the next season’s harvest. However, after the deal, a myriad of challenges are left to resolve before exports can ramp up, therefore nothing ensures that exports will pick up in the near term.
On August 1st, the first ship loaded with 26,000 tons of corn departed from Ukraine for Lebanon, marking a resume of Ukraine grain exports. Since then, and at the time of writing, a total of 12 vessels have departed from Ukrainian ports carrying 374,800 tons of agriculture-related merchandise, which is still a fraction of the 22mn tonnes of trapped grain in the country. Ukraine anticipates the number of vessels to pick up grains will be increased to reach full capacity within the following weeks. Given the exports continue successfully, they could increase as much as 3mn tons/month in 4-6 weeks.
In order to ship a total of 22mn tonnes of grains, it is estimated that approx. 371 loadings in 40,000-69,000dwt size vessels will be needed. The vessels will cover routes from the Black Sea to North Africa, the Middle East, and potentially Europe, while their voyages are expected to last approx. 7 days. At the moment most inquiries are Handy-based due to the shallow draft of ports in the Black Sea area and the short distance that needs to be covered. Given the limited duration of the agreement, it is expected that most inquiries will be for short-period time-charters for these particular routes. If the agreement is extended and more shipments will head to Asia, primarily S. Korea and China, there will be increased demand for period charters and for bigger vessels.
Congestion is expected to increase in Ukrainian ports as they have been un-operational and un-manned since the beginning of the war and their infrastructures might have been damaged. However, at the moment the discharge rate is relatively rapid given the small number of vessels in the area. Vessels that will bear increased voyage risk will require insurance premiums resulting in higher voyage expenses. Shipowners’ biggest impediment is to secure insurance for their vessels and cargoes and to find crew to sail their ships. On the other hand, this means that freights will move upwards in order to compensate for the extra risk.
As per the latest update of Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 31st, the country’s wheat exports have been down -53.2% y-o-y, while the market outlook for next year’s wheat crop remains bearish. Another downside factor is the quality of the grains that have been loaded in vessels for months under increased humidity and inadequate ventilation. There is a high risk that cargoes that have not been freshly loaded will be rejected by the importers if they do not meet specific requirements.
Under the current circumstances, there are several challenges lying ahead that create doubts on whether the exports could fully or at least partially recover. Given that the situation worsens around the Black Sea area and the materialized deal will be undermined, a further downside for grain trade is more likely within 2H2022. On the contrary, if the operation continues relatively smoothly, the world grain trade could see relief within 2H2022 as a result of an increase in tonne-days demand, while Ukraine could receive up to $1bn/month from its grain exports in order to fund its sowing plans.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
PAXOCEAN, HONG LAM MARINE AND BUREAU VERITAS SIGN MOU TO DEVELOP AMMONIA BUNKER VESSEL DESIGN - BUREAU VERITAS
PaxOcean Engineering Pte. Ltd. has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Singapore-based bunker vessel operator Hong Lam Marine and class ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
GOODFUELSS ASIA-PACIFIC BRANCH KICKSTARTS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUEL DELIVERIES WITH NYK AS FIRST CLIENT - GOOD FUELS
GoodFuels, the leading biofuels pioneer for the global transport industry, has today announced that it has successfully supplied sustainable marine ...
Tuesday, 16 August 22
EU BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS COMES INTO FORCE - DEUTSCHE WELLE
The European Union banned Russian coal imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine as part of sanctions in April. Since then, it’s been sc ...
Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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