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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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