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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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