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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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