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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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