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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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Showing 101 to 105 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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