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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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