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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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