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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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