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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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