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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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