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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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