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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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