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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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