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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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