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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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Showing 41 to 45 news of total 6871 |
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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