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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
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