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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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