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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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