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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
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