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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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