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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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