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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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