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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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