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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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