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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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