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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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