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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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