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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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