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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
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Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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