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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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