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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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