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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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