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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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