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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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