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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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