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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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