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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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