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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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