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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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