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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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