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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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