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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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