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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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