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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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