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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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