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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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