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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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