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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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