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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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