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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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