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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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