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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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