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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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