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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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