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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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