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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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