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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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