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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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