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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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