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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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